Market analysts have been discussing the potential impact of a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory in the upcoming US presidential elections on the price of Bitcoin. Historical data suggests that regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin’s trajectory remains bullish.
Looking back at previous elections, it is evident that the Bitcoin price has consistently reached new all-time highs (ATH). For instance, after Barack Obama’s victory in 2012, Bitcoin surged to a new ATH of $1,200 in 2013. The price then stabilized until the next election in 2016.
In 2016, Donald Trump’s win sparked another significant rally for Bitcoin, leading to a new ATH of $19,000 the following year. Similarly, after Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election, Bitcoin reached a new ATH of $69,000.
The post-election rally in the Bitcoin price is attributed to the market certainty provided by the election aftermath. Based on historical patterns, it is anticipated that the rally could commence as early as December, with Bitcoin hitting a new ATH by January 2024.
In 2016, the Bitcoin price rally began about three weeks before the election and culminated in a new high in the first week of January 2017. Similarly, in 2020, Bitcoin consolidated for approximately six months before starting its rally from $11,000 just weeks before the US elections, eventually reaching a new high of $42,000 in January 2021.
Recent price action suggests a similar pattern, with Bitcoin rallying in mid-October and nearing its current ATH of $73,700 last month. This indicates the potential for Bitcoin to retest and surpass its ATH by January 2024 or earlier.
While the overall trend remains upward, there could be some volatility in the days following the election. Analysts like Ali Martinez and Alex Kruger have warned of potential pullbacks, with a 45% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $65,000 if Kamala Harris emerges as the winner.
Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance makes him the preferred candidate in the crypto community, leading to a possible negative market reaction to a Harris win. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,000, experiencing a slight decline in the last 24 hours.
As the election draws nearer, market analysts will continue to monitor Bitcoin’s price movements and assess the impact of the election outcome on the cryptocurrency market. The historical data suggests that Bitcoin’s future trajectory remains bullish, regardless of who wins the US presidential elections.
